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Old 01-03-2016, 04:43 PM   #3501
You Need a Thneed
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Originally Posted by Bunk View Post
The problem here is simple real estate pro-forma arithmatic.

You have a piece of land that has a lot of infrastructure and environmental challenges and cost to do any sort of redevelopment.

You have a financial mechanism, a CRL, that could potentially pay for such costs and could be recouped if the development reaches its full potential (very high density residential and commercial across the site).

The arena/stadium here add two complications: a) it adds $240m to an (already substantial) CRL, and; b) reduces the developable area of the site for taxable uses to pay back the loan.

I feel like someone mentioned this basic issue to the Flames a number of years back, yet here we are...

--

"Edmonton used a downtown revitalization levy to pump $120 million into the Oilers arena, donating city land and related amenities like an LRT connection and “winter garden.”

Nenshi’s office has warned against this kind of move.

“If they proposed West Village, they’d be nuts,” policy analyst Bunk wrote to his colleagues in January 2013. “We told them two years ago the challenge with this site … The business case only makes sense if you can fully build it out at very high density. An arena sucks up a huge (piece) of land, leaving a lot less to pay back a CRL (community revitalization levy).”

In another e-mail, Bunk suggested West Village shouldn’t be opened up for at least a decade, lest it “cannibalize market demand” for East Village."

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hock...e-flames-arena

I'm guessing by April I could be saying "I told you so"
Exactly my thoughts, probably shaped by you in the first place.

The CRL as proposed, is a nonstarter. You can't create a CRL for $240 million + cleanup + infrastructure upgrades, take up essentially the entirety of the best redevelopable land (which doesn't pay any property taxes), and make it work.

Honestly, I dont think a CRL (of any dollar amount) works for a building of this size on that piece of land. Perhaps if it was just an arena, leaving some developable land that can pay taxes.
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