[Cowperson]

Sure, but there's a difference between profiting from oil reserves and being 'dependent' on oil. Being dependent signifies that without it, the system would collapse or become dilapidated. Russia and Norway would do just fine without oil, a lot better than countries that are truly 'dependent' upon it.

I think I said that but your definition of "just fine" and mine would be different. You can't remove billions in revenues from Norway and expect their social programs or economy to remain the same. Fact of life.

don't have an oil industry background, but his theory makes perfect common sense to me. The oil industry is more efficient because of technology and attempts to improve efficiency, with 30 years to do it. I'd be surprised if the efficiecy was the same.

If I read your post correctly, he was saying only higher prices create efficiencies. Clearly the opposite has occurred in the last 30 years. Inflation-adjusted, the price of oil fell and efficiencies for energy use were also achieved via advanced technology. American industry is HUGELY more energy efficient than it was in 1973. China and India are not but economic pressures will eventually force that expenditure upon them as their cost of labour advances towards first world standards.

The premise seems plausible though, if oil prices are low, why would we need to seek alternative energies?

Exactly. Hence the pursuit of OPEC to keep prices fairly affordable and rendering alternative sources uneconomic. Which is what I said earlier. Chomsky says that's a bad thing but tries to offer an economic argument instead of the tree hugger argument. The tree hugger argument works, the economic one doesn't. If you're a leftist trying to punish the USA for every crime in the history of the world, you would think that's bad.

Do you think there's a place where demand for oil will plateau and achieve perfect harmony with supply? I don't think so. India and China aren't even close to achieving the kinds of living standards that we have in North America. They're increasing demands for oil are going to be insatiable. Efficiency is not going to save depleting resources, only slow it down.

It's a given that demand will eventually outstrip supply and alternative energy sources will become economical.

Governments can encourage the development of alternative energy technology but there has to be an economic argument there as well to float the boat.

The more likely outcome is the search for even more efficiencies and a likely collapse in the price of the commodity. If I'm not mistaken, this is the third price rise of about 60% for oil in the last seven or eight years. The other two times saw a price collapse . . . . soon.

Sooner or later alternative sources to carbon energy will grab hold. Over OPEC's dead body because they'll be pumping oil to keep prices down. Because that's all they've got.

Cowperson