So got an update from Vox while I was YOLO rebooting the MySQL server (and then had to have Vox's guys actually reboot it for me when it didn't reboot, thanks!)... Apparently there was a network issue that likely was impacting the database server's connection to the storage, and it would have caused random slowdowns and intermittant problems, just like we were seeing.
They think it should be resolved, so will keep an eye on it but hopefully things will improve. If things look stable I'll try and remember to turn some things back on in the morning.
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Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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