Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - I'm calling it now, The Flames will be dancing this spring

Enoch Root · 12-13-2015, 11:03 AM

I love the playoff snake and I'm glad its back, but it doesn't really apply this season. The snake works for a league or conference race where all you can do is get as many points as possible and hope it'll be enough.

This year's race is divisional, and points are irrelevant - whether they get 80 or 100, the only thing that matters is finishing top 3. Like baseball. Win the division and you're in. Or more precisely, finish top 3 and you're in.

But it's actually more like the WC race in baseball, because we can probably concede 1st to LA (until things change), leaving 2 spots for the other 6 teams to fight for.

So I have put the race together in the format of MLB's wild card race. The top 2 spots are in, and everyone else is listed as games behind. (I have converted ties into wins and losses for clarity - each 2 ties equals 1 W and 1 L).

The important team is the one in 3rd because they hold the final playoff spot, and the team in 2nd is listed as being ahead by however many games. All the other teams are listed by how much they trail the 3rd place team.

So lets start by looking at things after the Flames' horrific start. These are the standings on Nov 5th (LA is ignored and the top 2 teams are 2nd and 3rd):

VAN 8-5-0 +1.5
SJS. 6-6-0 -
ARI. 5-5-1 -
EDM 5-8-0 -1.5
ANA 4-8-0 -2.0
CAL 3-9-1 -3.0 (-5.0)

So the Nucks were in 2nd and had a game and a half cushion. SJ and the Yotes were tied for the final spot and Edm, the Ducks and Flames were trailing by the amounts listed. (I also include how far back the Flames were from the Western Conf WC spot for reference - in this case, 5 games behind the Preds)

Here were the standings at the 20 game mark (just before US Thanksgiving):

SJS. 12-8-0 +1.5
ARI. 10-9-1 -
VAN 10-10-0 -0.5
ANA 9-11-0 -1.5
CAL 7-12-1 -3.0 (-4.5)
EDM 7-12-1 -3-0

So SJ and VAN switched places. The Flames basically held their position through this stretch (stopped the bleeding).

And as of today:

ARI. 15-15-0 -
SJS 14.-14-1 -
VAN 15-15-0 -
CAL 14-15-0 -0.5 (-3.0)
EDM 14-16-0 -1.0
ANA 13-15-1 -1.0

So we now have 6 teams all within one game of each other. Over this stretch, the Flames and the Oilers basically reeled the rest of the pack in.

And note that the Flames have also cut the WC deficit to 3 games. If they can beat Nash in regulation on Tuesday, they would cut that deficit by another full game.

If Mr Treliving can get us some goaltending, I have no doubt whatsoever that the Flames will make the dance again.

(Oh, one other note: I used ROW as the tie-breaker)

Thoughts?

12-13-2015, 11:03 AM	#165
Enoch Root Franchise Player Join Date: May 2012 Exp:	I love the playoff snake and I'm glad its back, but it doesn't really apply this season. The snake works for a league or conference race where all you can do is get as many points as possible and hope it'll be enough. This year's race is divisional, and points are irrelevant - whether they get 80 or 100, the only thing that matters is finishing top 3. Like baseball. Win the division and you're in. Or more precisely, finish top 3 and you're in. But it's actually more like the WC race in baseball, because we can probably concede 1st to LA (until things change), leaving 2 spots for the other 6 teams to fight for. So I have put the race together in the format of MLB's wild card race. The top 2 spots are in, and everyone else is listed as games behind. (I have converted ties into wins and losses for clarity - each 2 ties equals 1 W and 1 L). The important team is the one in 3rd because they hold the final playoff spot, and the team in 2nd is listed as being ahead by however many games. All the other teams are listed by how much they trail the 3rd place team. So lets start by looking at things after the Flames' horrific start. These are the standings on Nov 5th (LA is ignored and the top 2 teams are 2nd and 3rd): VAN 8-5-0 +1.5 SJS. 6-6-0 - ARI. 5-5-1 - EDM 5-8-0 -1.5 ANA 4-8-0 -2.0 CAL 3-9-1 -3.0 (-5.0) So the Nucks were in 2nd and had a game and a half cushion. SJ and the Yotes were tied for the final spot and Edm, the Ducks and Flames were trailing by the amounts listed. (I also include how far back the Flames were from the Western Conf WC spot for reference - in this case, 5 games behind the Preds) Here were the standings at the 20 game mark (just before US Thanksgiving): SJS. 12-8-0 +1.5 ARI. 10-9-1 - VAN 10-10-0 -0.5 ANA 9-11-0 -1.5 CAL 7-12-1 -3.0 (-4.5) EDM 7-12-1 -3-0 So SJ and VAN switched places. The Flames basically held their position through this stretch (stopped the bleeding). And as of today: ARI. 15-15-0 - SJS 14.-14-1 - VAN 15-15-0 - CAL 14-15-0 -0.5 (-3.0) EDM 14-16-0 -1.0 ANA 13-15-1 -1.0 So we now have 6 teams all within one game of each other. Over this stretch, the Flames and the Oilers basically reeled the rest of the pack in. And note that the Flames have also cut the WC deficit to 3 games. If they can beat Nash in regulation on Tuesday, they would cut that deficit by another full game. If Mr Treliving can get us some goaltending, I have no doubt whatsoever that the Flames will make the dance again. (Oh, one other note: I used ROW as the tie-breaker) Thoughts?