As always, the thing to remember is that the escalator is only applied to the previous season's actual revenues, not the previous season's projected revenue.
If this year's cap was set for a projected revenue of $4 billion, but the actual revenue was $3.5 billion, next year's cap would be set for a projected revenue of $3.675 billion, not $4.2 billion. So, in that situation, the cap would go down even with the escalator applied.
If next year's cap is the same as this year's, that would mean that this year's revenue is about the same as last year's.
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