Quote:
Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf
People saying this was a .500 team at the half way mark before the trades are forgetting it was a .500 team with the best run differential in the league
essentially they were an extremely unlucky .500 team
if you look here on July 1st
http://www.baseball-reference.com/ga...it=Submit+Date
based on their Run differential they should have been winning about 60% of their games
and right now they are a much better team than the 1st half of last year solely by
Stroman>Buerhle
Happ>Hutchison
Tulo>Reyes |
They Jays were a .500 team well into mid-July because their pitching from their starting rotation was not great, and their bullpen was a complete mess. I forget off the top of my head how many games their bullpen blew, but it was up there. Until the Jays acquired Price, augmented their bullpen, and had Dickey have a career second-half, they were something like 2-23 (or something ridiculous like that) in 1 run games. Their record had nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with pitching. The Jays had the best offence in baseball, but to win a game they had to score 6 runs. Any time that didn't happen, a loss resulted and no matter how good your offence is, you can't score 6 runs all the time.
I think to suggest the fact that they will have better pitching to go along with the offence next year as it stands now is pretty far fetched in my opinion. As it currently stands, the Jays have no replacement for Price, no guarantee Dickey can replicate his July-Sept. performance, and have a terrible bullpen outside of Cecil. People like to highlight the fact that Buerhle had a terrible August and September, but the guy was 11-4 through July. Laying all their eggs in Stroman is also a very bad idea for a team that is obviously in win now mode. While Stroman has been great to start his career, he has just as much chance of regressing next year as he does improving/staying status quo. As Greg Zaun had mentioned on numerous occasions last year, because of Stroman's stature, he has next to no downward movement on his pitches. His pitches basically come at the batter straight. As a result, once guys have had a few more starts and at-bats, if they pick up on Stroman's delivery, there's the potential that his trajectory as a starting pitcher could change rather abruptly. Zaun is even on record saying he figures that when all things settle, Stroman will be a bullpen guy. Now Zaun isn't the be all and end all of baseball prophets, but there is some logic to what the former catches says. I personally think Stroman will have a good productive career as a starter, but I don't think he'll ever be a true ace. Likely a #2 or #3 starter.
I think it's also a pretty safe assumption that both Boston and New York will likely be improved baseball teams by the time April rolls around (Especially Boston). The Jays were 42-34 against the AL East. This was the direct result of having a 13-6 record against the Yankees which I don't think will be repeated with the rotation as it stands now.
In my opinion, the Jays needs to bolster their starting rotation and bullpen to even have a chance repeating at AL East Champs. What they currently have isn't going to cut it, and if nothing is done, they will likely end up as a .500 team on the outside looking in.