Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix
Paint it however you want, but if this is the rotation for 2016 the Jays aren't winning the AL East again IMO. Maybe they get lucky and 80ish wins is enough to play in the WC game but I doubt it.
They have a one year window and they decide to cheap out on pitching, what a solid strategy  |
Right. This was a .500 team at the trade deadline last year with a rotation of Estrada/Buerhle/Dickey/Hutchison/Sanchez. That was with Sanchez missing half the time and crap like Copeland/Doubront/Boyd filling the gap. And it was also a team with a massive positive run differential that was extremely unlucky to only be .500.
So now you get Stroman back, upgrade the back end of that rotation, have Estrada starting from day one, and add Tulo to an already ridiculous offense. Yet, somehow, the Jays will be worse than they were pre-deadline last year because they didn't sign Price. I didn't realize he is worth 20 wins to a team.
Let's not forget that the Jays were 30-9 from the point they acquired Price until Stroman returned. And that was with Hutchison pitching every 5th day along with Buerhle pitching on fumes to a 4.71 ERA during that span of time. Assuming Stroman can pitch like he did down the stretch, he replaces a lot of what Price brought, Dickey and Estrada are still there, and whoever fills those last two spots will almost assuredly be better than Buerhle/Hutchison were down the stretch.
The big problem with the obsession of signing a big money free agent pitcher is that is ignores the glaring hole the Jays have in terms of organizational starting pitching depth. There isn't any prospect the Jays can count on to pitch in the majors next season. Injuries will happen and until now there was absolutely no one to take those starts. Signing Price effectively meant giving the Scott Copelands, Felix Doubronts, etc. of the world at least 10 starts since it blows the budget on acquiring additional depth. That saps a lot of Price's value by forcing the Jays to roll out below replacement level guys to fill starts. Sometimes avoiding playing terrible players can be just as valuable as adding great players.
With the Jays moves they've made, they can actually go into the regular season with 7 good options to start. That's critical. They actually have a buffer in the event of injuries which are going to happen. That buffer they had last year was a guy like Estrada who basically saved their season.
Ideally, the Jays can roll out a rotation something like:
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Sanchez
Osuna stays closer. Chavez starts as the long man, but is stretched out to sub into the rotation when someone gets inevitably hurt. Hutchison starts in AAA to get his game right and can move up to the big club if he pitches well and someone gets hurt. The Jays actually have a buffer from Scott Copeland or some other journeyman minor leaguer starting any games. And they still have some budget room to sign a decent bullpen arm or two (Mark Lowe? Ryan Madsen?) to replace Sanchez.