Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan
Alright, let's give this a shot. If we're talking year 5 of the rebuild, we're talking the 2017-18 season.
Players from the current roster that will likely be part of the team in a couple years:
Gaudreau-X-X
Bennett-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund*-Colborne*
Bouma-Stajan*-X
(If you'd rather Bennett somewhere on the top line, that's fine too, but it still leaves a hole)
Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-X
X-X
X-X (no goalies)
* = players who may be traded or not re-signed.
So in my estimation, at minimum we need a top line center and right wing, a 3rd/4th line right winger, a legitimate top 4 defenseman, and two bottom pairing defensemen.
I honestly don't think we should worry about the 3rd/4th line winger as those can be found easily, probably internally. Bottom pairing defensemen are also found relatively easily (see last year with Diaz and Schlemko), so let's not get too concerned about that. We have plenty of viable bottom pairing defense prospects in the system to fill those spots internally. Any of Kulak, Culkin, Sieloff, Wotherspoon, Morrison etc. can step up over the next couple years.
The big problem is finding a top line center who can handle the other big centers in the Western Conference, as well as a natural right winger with size who can finish Gaudreau's plays. For the top line center, you'll never find it through a trade or UFA signing without drastically overpaying for it (see Brad Richards almost $10 million/year contract offer a few years ago). The only way to fill it is internally through the draft. An elite right winger could be found, but it will also cost plenty to acquire. Still best to find that through the draft.
The #4 defenseman is also hard to find, but I think one of Andersson, Kylington, Hickey, et al could fill that role. If not, you go out and acquire one somehow. They just need to be able to handle top 4 responsibilities, have some size to balance out Gio's average size, and be able to skate decently. I personally think Andersson will be the guy in a couple years time.
What about goaltending? So hard to predict. How many goalies that are drafted end up anywhere near their potential? For now I would like to think that the tandem will eventually be Gillies and McDonald, but it's really hard to say that with any confidence. This may be the one position we need to fill through a trade or a UFA signing, but you rarely get a top 15 goalie that way.
Here are the players in the system that I think could be on the team in two years, and where I expect them in the lineup.
X-Jankowski-X
X-X-X
X-X-Poirier
X-Arnold-X
X-X
Hickey-Andersson
Sieloff-Morrison (Kulak, Culkin?)
Gillies-X
Yes, I think Jankowski might end up being our 1st line center in a couple years. I have a lot of reasons to think that it's possible, but I won't go into that now. We still have Monahan and Bennett who could take that spot too, so overall that will get sorted out at some point.
The big right winger who can finish plays is still missing, but that might get sorted with our 1st round pick this year.
I think you see 1-2 of Backlund, Stajan, and Colborne either traded or not re-signed. My money is on Backlund staying, Colborne is retained as a bottom 6 winger, and Arnold eventually takes over as the 4th line center as Stajan gets traded for just about anything.
What I can roughly see in 2 years time:
Gaudreau-Jankowski-2016 1st round pick
Bennett-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund-Poirier
Bouma-Arnold-Colborne
Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-Andersson
Sieloff-Hickey
Gillies-X
To me it really hinges on Gillies developing into a quality starting goaltender. If that happens, just about everything else will take care of itself.
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