Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
As a quick primer in Kurdish politics:
The Kurds are not currently actively attempting to create an independent Kurdish state or to (officially) politically unite the Kurdish areas in Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. This became the main policy I think about a decade ago when the PKK decided to give up on armed struggle and work through Turkish parliamentary democracy.
AFAIK their current goal is to set up autonomous areas in each of those four countries.
Iraq has already had an autonomous Kurdistan since the 70's, and obviously right now they're pretty much free to do what they want as the current Iraq government is kind of a joke. (It's worth noting though that there's a lot of political infighting between
Syria has an effectively autonomous Kurdish area (Western Kurdistan or Rojava) since the start of the civil war, but that's recognized only by the other rebel groups.
If I've understood correctly (don't quote me on this) Iranian Kurds tend to more or less content being just Iranians, although Kurdish nationalism has been on the rise I over there too I think.
In Turkey the Kurds are essentially a part of the new left alliance similar to Syriza in Greece or Podemos in Spain. They're pro-minority rights, but beyond that there hasn't been a strong push for even an autonomous Kurdish area in Turkey. The political side has strong connections to PKK, but the PKK hasn't shown an interest in active violence in a good while. I'm not sure if that has changed since Erdogan started his anti-Kurdish politics. (Which was a "funny" move considering that a decade ago Erdogan ran on a platform of settling the Kurdish issue through peaceful means.)
TL;DR:
It seems really unlikely that an independent Kurdistan would emerge any time soon, and even if it did it's unlikely that the Kurdish areas in Iran or Turkey would be interested in joining.
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Political opinion and official policy on whether Kurdish people are satisfied with "autonomous regions" or want a state could change anytime.
The autonomous region in Iraq did come into being in 1970. However, that deal fell apart in 1973 when the Iraqi government invaded. The region didn't gain any autonomy again until the 90s when it was enforced by Western powers via no fly zones. So depicting the Kurdish people as content with an autonomous region since 1970 is far from correct and totally ignores decades of brutal conflict and oppression.
Neither of us can correctly speak for every Kurdish person, but from my perspective any autonomous region looks like a means to an end, which is the establishment of a larger state. Given the history of how "autonomous regions" have worked out for them in the past, my guess is a large part of their population would prefer an independent state with a true military.