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heep223 · 11-11-2015, 03:17 PM

I did some analysis and I didn't want it to get buried in another thread, because I think it's illuminating as to what the eff is wrong with the Flames this season. My personal hypothesis is that although it's quite likely that both bad goaltending and bad D are big problems, it's more goaltending that's the issue and my feet are firmly planted in that camp.

On the other side, posters are arguing that the Flames are giving up way too many quality scoring chances and that it's a team defense issue (the team itself is saying this as well, not throwing their goalies under the bus). Lots of posters are saying that the goalies didn't just wake up and forget how to play.

So here's the question that I was curious about: is the team actually giving up more chances? Or is every chance just going in because the goalies suck (with Ramo being the current culprit)?

I compared last season's "on-ice high danger scoring chances" for and against the Flames after 16 games, to the current season (source: war-on-ice.com). This is all even strength, I didn't do any analysis on special teams.

Last Season
High Danger Scoring Chances Against: 152
Goals Against: 26
Ratio: 17.1%

This Season
High Danger Scoring Chances Against: 131
Goals Against: 46
Ratio: 35.1%

The team has given up 21 less high danger scoring chances this year, and let in 20 more goals. Less chances, more goals. WAY more goals. Almost double the amount of goals. Effectively other teams are capitalizing at twice the rate they were last year on high quality scoring chances.

They've also scored more this season and have had way more quality scoring chances.

Last Season
High Danger Scoring Chances For: 110
Goals For: 32
Ratio: 29.1%

This Season
High Danger Scoring Chances For: 136
Goals For: 28
Ratio: 20.6%

TL;DR offense is generating more chances, defense is giving up less chances, and Ramo is so bad he's bringing down the entire team

Prove me wrong

PS I'm sure if someone looked at special teams in this same lens they'd find that they have been much worse than last, which is also a factor that I think isn't being talked about enough. I think I've already wasted enough of my day doing this

11-11-2015, 03:17 PM	#1
heep223 Could Care Less Join Date: Sep 2013 Exp:	Bad Goaltending vs Bad D I did some analysis and I didn't want it to get buried in another thread, because I think it's illuminating as to what the eff is wrong with the Flames this season. My personal hypothesis is that although it's quite likely that both bad goaltending and bad D are big problems, it's more goaltending that's the issue and my feet are firmly planted in that camp. On the other side, posters are arguing that the Flames are giving up way too many quality scoring chances and that it's a team defense issue (the team itself is saying this as well, not throwing their goalies under the bus). Lots of posters are saying that the goalies didn't just wake up and forget how to play. So here's the question that I was curious about: is the team actually giving up more chances? Or is every chance just going in because the goalies suck (with Ramo being the current culprit)? I compared last season's "on-ice high danger scoring chances" for and against the Flames after 16 games, to the current season (source: war-on-ice.com). This is all even strength, I didn't do any analysis on special teams. Last Season High Danger Scoring Chances Against: 152 Goals Against: 26 Ratio: 17.1% This Season High Danger Scoring Chances Against: 131 Goals Against: 46 Ratio: 35.1% The team has given up 21 less high danger scoring chances this year, and let in 20 more goals. Less chances, more goals. WAY more goals. Almost double the amount of goals. Effectively other teams are capitalizing at twice the rate they were last year on high quality scoring chances. They've also scored more this season and have had way more quality scoring chances. Last Season High Danger Scoring Chances For: 110 Goals For: 32 Ratio: 29.1% This Season High Danger Scoring Chances For: 136 Goals For: 28 Ratio: 20.6% TL;DR offense is generating more chances, defense is giving up less chances, and Ramo is so bad he's bringing down the entire team Prove me wrong PS I'm sure if someone looked at special teams in this same lens they'd find that they have been much worse than last, which is also a factor that I think isn't being talked about enough. I think I've already wasted enough of my day doing this