In addition to the processing power that goes into individual cars' "brains," the other huge factor available to advance auto-pilot is the ubiquity of wireless communications for information sharing. What we'll see is that rather than relying on a static map (or GIS database) of road infrastructure, the "database" will be dynamically updated and maintained by every single vehicle that uses the road. Potholes...pedestrians leaving football games...ice-covered roads -- in 10 years or less, our cars will know far more about the current state of our roads than we do now. AND, our cars will know about problems on the road minutes before encountering them, rather than seconds before (relying on an attentive driver watching the road).
While I don't think human driving will be obsolete within 10 years, I would bet that among children born today, fewer than half will ever hold a driver's license as we now know it.
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