It depends on what you believe. If you believe layoffs have stabilized with the 0 spend 2016 capital budgets the majors are doing then in theory we have reached the end of the layoffs.
If that's the case then the only pressure on housing will be people running out of severance, then rrsps which takes longer then you think.
With interest rates being low rents can drop and still cover mortgage costs so most rental properties will be neutralish.
If the job market stabilizes people will begin to buy again.
The biggest threat to housing price is likely new construction cost dropping do to labour price drops which allows them to drop prices and over supply the market.
So without continuing layoffs or interest rate increases I don't see anything greater than 10% downside.
|