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Originally Posted by Parallex
Okey here's my early thoughts on the Jays for next year...
The Bats: They're going to be even better. All the big bats from this past season are going to be back and we'll hopefully have a healthy Michael Saunders and a healthy Devon Travis to provide even more depth. This team can hit. Full year from an acclimated Tulo will be a big upgrade as well.
The Arms: As "wow" as the bats will be the arms will be what keep us biting our finger nails. Most of the money saved from the departure of Buehrle, Iztarius, and Romero will be eaten up by the players escalating up the arbitration scale (Plus Martin's raise). If we can get Estrada to sign on at 10 per that'll eat up the rest leaving two question marks in the rotation. We can lower that to one if we want to bet on Hutchison being 2014 Hutchison (who was quite good) and not 2015 Hutchison (who was not). If we're going to take from the bullpen we need it to be Osuna as Sanchez has had uninspiring results as a starter at every level (Selfishly I hope Venditte makes the team because... switch-pitcher!).
Palace Intrigue: I like the selection of Lacava (hopefully he'll get to drop the interim). I mean... if you couldn't get AA to re-up then his RH man is the logical choice. Gibby sticking around is good. Shapiro is a bright guy so I'm not bent out of shape about management.
The Farm: Badly need to restock the arms. Considering the derth of quality arms at the high minors I'd recommend heavily scouting NCAA hurlers in prep for the draft.
Functionally I think the Jays can do next year what they did this past year but they're going to have to depend on the results matching talent (AKA not have a mediocre first half record despite the great run differential) because there will be no orgy of rental trades... the Jays don't have the prospect capital to spend anymore.
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I agree on the bats, but they need to change their approach to have any change of advancing in the playoffs further. You can't hit 3-4 home runs a game when you are facing 3 all-star caliber pitchers in potentially a large field . Jays have to learn how to manufacture runs without the bomb.
Pitching is in a brutal place right now. There's absolutely no way Estrada signs for less than 15M a year. Rumors out there having his asking price at $15M per year over 4 years. He'll get 15M, the question mark is on the term. I don't think Hutchinson is an answer at all. He is a complete basket case. These problems started in the 2014 season. I see him going the Ricky Romero route. Fortunately for the Jays, these issues reared their ugly ahead before he got paid. Jays need to take Dickey's option, sign 2 starters (ace and a higher end guy), and add a minimum 2 power arms to the bullpen. This is completely not possible if there are no changes to the budget.
If the Jays address the pitching, they will challenge for the AL east again. If not, we are in for a long year which is going to turn into a fire sale by the trade deadline. Edwin, Bautista, Tulo, and Dickey will all be traded to bolster the non-existent farm team we currently have. Quite honestly, I think that was the plan all along (to shed salary), but Beeston and AA's shopping spree and subsequent great results really put a wrench in that.