Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
I think the Flames are done. To go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way in the Western Conference is extremely difficult.
Stick to the long term plan and don't make moves that are designed to help the team this year.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html
41-21-10 required to get 97 points. |
While I agree that things are already looking grim, and nothing in your post is wrong, this is a bit misleading.
First, the sportsclubstats weighted playoff chances of 8ish percent is predicting the likelihood of future wins based on current record. Using the 50/50 odds (which I think most would agree is more realistic than a 30% chance of winning games), the sites gives 30%. Though spot though, either way.
Also, I don't think 97 point will be required to finish 3rd in the pacific. The division looks weak this year, very weak. I don't expect Arizona or Edmonton to be a factor at all so that leaves us fighting with LA, SJ, a vulnerable Vancouver team and a 1-6-2 Anaheim team. 92 might be a more realistic number.
That shouldn't, however, change your point of looking long-term. David Jones should be moved at the deadline if anyone will give us anything. If the right deal for Russell or Wideman comes along, pull the trigger. No futures for rentals, etc. But I still believe.