Quote:
Originally Posted by sworkhard
How accurate is the futures curve though. Did it predict the current price of oil 3 years in advance?
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Hell no. It was in backwardation back then, now it's in contango because prices are so low. It's not very accurate, hypothetically it's based on the underlying economics of trading, storing and delivering the commodity, among other things. The issue is that the government always uses inflated numbers to make their budget look better.
Just use today's price, or use the futures curve. Don't use inflated numbers that they pulled out of a hat.