Quote:
Originally Posted by starseed
Wow. 308 had predicted Acadie-Bathurst in NB to go NDP with 89% certainty. Liberals lead by 121 votes now.
308 predicted the Conservatives take NB Southwest with 73% certainty. Liberals lead by 187 votes, and 10 points.
The polls underestimated Liberal support, or overestimated the CPC/NDP ability to get out the vote.
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308 takes into account the incumbent effect which tends to result in the incumbent getting some additional percentage of the vote share even if the poll's don't show it.. However, the author acknowledges himself that is the weakest part of the model, especially given the ABH movement.