Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
308 is showing that the Conservatives lead the Liberals in my riding by 0.1%. I am pretty sure that at the start, it was supposed to be a CPC cakewalk.
How reliable is that site?
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For the most part, they don't make their predictions based on riding-specific polls. Instead, they have an algorithm that computes how your riding tends to vote in relation to the national average. So if the Conservatives are polling at 30% nationally, and your riding is 10% more Conservative than average, then it would calculate Conservative support in your riding at 40%. It's actually a bit more complex than that, but you get the gist.
In past federal and provincial elections, 308 usually predicts ~85% of ridings correctly.