Perhaps it is the Westerner in me but I don't really consider most voters in Toronto to be the base of the party. Those voters seem to be the swing types that have given the Conservatives a majority in the past but may swing to take them below the Liberals this time, but perhaps I am misjudging Toronto area Conservatives.
For me what I have been hearing is that the Conservative base is pretty strong which is why most people have them at say a 30% floor but a lower ceiling than the Liberals because the Conservatives have the strong support from their base but a losing out on the swing voters.
But I am far from an expert and have only read and watched very brief articles and shows so I could be right out to lunch. I will say among those I know that I would say are strong Conservative supporters nobody has said anything against Harper but I know how wrong anecdotal evidence can be.
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