Many conservative supporters I know are either completely unenthusiastic or downright angry at Harper. If they lose, I think the sense is he'd have left the party in much worse shape, far more entrenched and narrow in its policy outlook appealing to a hardcore base that had no possibility of growing the appeal of the party to more Canadians. As a result they have a high floor but a low ceiling of possible support as well. It makes it very difficult to gain a majority under a circumstance like that.
Another mistake I think they've made is their message discipline has been extremely poor. They're all over the map. Most people that paid any attention in 2006 could name all five of their very clear campaign promises, this time it's a hodgepodge of ill thought out policies and announcements. There has also been too much emphasis on past record. As Bill Clinton points out, all elections are really about the future. That's what people care about. They should have focused more on what (and who) the future of the party is.
Lastly, with respect to Justin Trudeau - their main message of "not ready" was a mistake, especially in a long campaign. It's often that campaigns try and lower expectations of their own leader in order to make it easier for them to exceed them. The conservatives did that for the liberals! Over a long campaign, as long as Trudeau didn't start dribbling from his mouth on the debate stage and so on, he was going to exceed those expectations. And he did rather easily.
__________________
Trust the snake.
|