Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce
If we assume the polls have been accurate, when the CPC moved into first place the ABC vote switched to Liberal. I don't know if that is soft LPC support and subject to change still. That 36 to 39% for the CPC last time around is probably indicative a couple things.
First - a poll is not a ballot box. Second - some party's/leaders do a good job of getting the vote out and others do not. The CPC generally does a good job of getting the vote out. I think Trudeau will get the vote out, and that coupled with a desire for change (which high advanced poll turnout are probably indicative of) means we are less likely to a discrepancy in actual CPC ballots compared to polling numbers this time.
308 has the LPC projection currently at 136 seats.
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I agree. The Nanos poll started showing things breaking the conservatives way in the last few days up 2.4 % from where it was and it became +3% on the election day. It'll be interesting if the moderate conservatives and NDP voters that are softer supporters of those parties decide to vote Liberal to get a change. The right leaning Liberal voters all fled to the conservatives, similarly with the left and the NDP, last go around in the last few days. We will see if the inverse occurs again this time. It seems like all the polls have the Liberals breaking away at the moment.