Quote:
Originally Posted by Caged Great
It will be interesting to see how the next couple days play out. If the Liberals start spiking, a majority might be in reach. At this point I don't see how they finish with fewer than 145-150 seats, they need 170 for the majority.
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If we assume the polls have been accurate, when the CPC moved into first place the ABC vote switched to Liberal. I don't know if that is soft LPC support and subject to change still. That 36 to 39% for the CPC last time around is probably indicative a couple things.
First - a poll is not a ballot box. Second - some party's/leaders do a good job of getting the vote out and others do not. The CPC generally does a good job of getting the vote out. I think Trudeau will get the vote out, and that coupled with a desire for change (which high advanced poll turnout are probably indicative of) means we are less likely to a discrepancy in actual CPC ballots compared to polling numbers this time.
308 has the LPC projection currently at 136 seats.