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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Muclair ran an absolutely brutal campaign, and I doubt that he's going to be allowed to remain as the leader of the NDP party for long after election night. I believe he had a bad strategy, he should have focused his attention more on gaining votes from undecided left leaners, and stealing seats from the Liberals.
Instead Trudeau was allowed to slide under the radar by both parties.
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I sort of agree with this. The NDP tried to steal the Liberals traditional position as a brokerage party and it backfired on them spectacularly. The problem with the NDP is that they don't have a strong tradition of centrist economic policies, so when they propose them no one in the soft-centre buys it. It didn't help that they hedged on a lot of their social policies, too. In an election where leftist voters were looking for a viable alternative to Harper, Mulcair came off as a moderate and allowed Trudeau to take the more popular positions on things like marijuana legalization. Additionally the Liberals actually have a history of centrist and centre-right fiscal policies to point to in order to ease nervous Red Tories.
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I would expect that we are going to either see a minority conservative or Liberal government that maybe lasts one budget before we head back to the polls again.
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I really doubt it. The Liberals and NDP are both going to be close to tapped after this campaign and they risk losing any gains they've made if voter turnout goes down in a subsequent election, which it likely will. I also don't think the NDP will be wanting to fight another election with Mulcair as their leader, and will likely see propping up a Liberal government as the prudent thing to do from both policy and popularity standpoints. I think one way or another, we're likely getting a Liberal minority government unless the CPC snatches a majority
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Two of the three parties will be searching for a new leader no matter what happens in this election.
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Depends. The Liberals are currently projected to gain close to 100+ seats from 2011. Their popular vote is also up, and they've drained a lot of that support from both the NDP and the Conservatives. Even if they don't win, that's a major boost and credit has to go to Trudeau and his team. It would be pretty short-sighted for them to axe him that quickly. That said, I think Mulcair and Harper are gone if the Liberals win.