Quote:
Originally Posted by jaydorn
At this point I think the Liberals have it, their most recent TV spots are hitting all the right notes in today's climate. The whole niqab debate seems to have polarized Canadians against the conservatives, while the liberals are riding that wave of support.
During the provincial election I thought the Prentice/Smith press conference was the fatal misstep for the provincial PC's, attempting to use the niqab as a wedge issue may just be the Harper Government's fatal misstep. Both left a bad taste in the voter's mouths and drove them to the other candidates.
But I'm no fancy pants political analyst, I just build websites.
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If the Liberals win (I agree it's looking more likely, but I don't fully share your confidence), I think history will recognize two big mistakes the Harper campaign made:
1. "He's just not ready" backfired. Harper's multi-year attack ads set expectations for Trudeau so low that people thought he would show up to the debates drooling all over his shirt. While he didn't blow anyone away with masterful performances, he won the debates simply by appearing somewhat competent and vastly exceeding the (very low) expectations the Conservatives had created for him in the minds of voters.
2. The niqab issue also backfired, but not for the reason one might think. I don't necessarily think it polarized people against the Conservatives and cost them any real support. Outside of Quebec, people who think the niqab is an important election issue were already voting for the Conservatives anyway, and people who think it's a trivial distraction from more important issues were already in the ABC camp. The effect it did have, though, was to cut into the NDP's wide lead in Quebec (and by extension also reduce their national polling numbers). This solidified the Liberals as the very clear choice for most strategic voters in the country, thus reducing the amount of vote-splitting that will occur between the Liberals and the NDP -- vote splitting the Conservatives absolutely require to win many ridings.