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Iowa_Flames_Fan · 10-11-2015, 04:03 PM

I don't know if Nanos has been skewed one way or the other--it was showing strong results for the CPC early on, and as recently as a week ago. Forum has had some big swings, but they also showed the CPC with a substantial lead over the liberals not that long ago, and have the two parties basically flipped now.

I think there is just a lot of noise in this data. Aggregating the numbers should smooth some of that out, but it won't eliminate it entirely. I kind of think you can look at this data and think "tied race" or "slight liberal lead," but if anyone is absolutely convinced one way or the other, it's because they want to be. (Personally, my guess is
"tied race" but it's really just a hunch)

10-11-2015, 04:03 PM	#486
Iowa_Flames_Fan Referee Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Over the hill Exp:	I don't know if Nanos has been skewed one way or the other--it was showing strong results for the CPC early on, and as recently as a week ago. Forum has had some big swings, but they also showed the CPC with a substantial lead over the liberals not that long ago, and have the two parties basically flipped now. I think there is just a lot of noise in this data. Aggregating the numbers should smooth some of that out, but it won't eliminate it entirely. I kind of think you can look at this data and think "tied race" or "slight liberal lead," but if anyone is absolutely convinced one way or the other, it's because they want to be. (Personally, my guess is "tied race" but it's really just a hunch)