As someone pointed out on Reddit, the Mainstreet poll has a sampling issue.
Quote:
|
Does anyone else think it's weird that the CPC lead by 5% over the NDP and 6% over the LPC with 18-35 year olds?
|
Quote:
|
Check out the sample sizes too: 436 for the 18-34 group vs. 2031 for the 65+ group.
|
Quote:
That's not what's historically seen. In the last Ipsos poll, the LPC (34%) had an 8-point edge over the NDP in this group (26%), which was itself 6 points up over the CPC (20%). Forum's September 29th poll showed the NDP (37%) well in front of the CPC and LPC (25% apiece). Angus Reid also has the NDP up (27%) over the LPC (23%) and CPC (18%). It is extremely unusual to see the CPC leading the 18-34 demographic.
I think that Mainstreet has a sampling problem here, at least with this demographic. Young Canadians are notoriously difficult to get on the phone anyway, but in the unweighted sample this age group composed only 8.4% of Mainstreet's responses. Forum had a more respectable 17.8%; this group really composes 29% of adults (CANSIM 051-0001).
|
This reeks of a poll getting the numbers they wanted to see.