Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
I wonder how big of a hit they need to take in Quebec for it to actually matter in terms of seats. They were basically lapping the field out there so dropping a bit might not be a big deal in terms of seats.
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My guess would be "not a huge hit, but not an insignificant hit either".
The big danger for the NDP is that if they don't recover swiftly then the NDP will cease to be a real "agent of change" possibility in the national narrative. Meaning that they see a secondary hit as ABC voters abandon them for the Liberals both in Quebec and nationwide followed by a third, smaller, hit of bandwagon voters.
Basically the "Orange wave" of 2011 receding back into the electoral ocean.