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Old 09-27-2015, 10:43 AM   #476
Street Pharmacist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by druetetective View Post
Omg Andersson's numbers this year will be godly.I can easily see 80+ points.

There's a Canucks blogger who does analysis on CHL prospects using only points. It's pretty in depth stuff but he doesn't watch any games only the stats. Anyways he was crying for the Canucks to draft both Andersson and Kylington all year and he doesn't let them forget it when his "picks' turn out better than the actual ones. I'm looking forward to his whining.

Canucksarmy I think it's called
It's actually extremely fascinating stuff. They use quite a bit more than points. It's called Prospect Cohort Success (PCS) model and they are building a database that finds similar prospects and determines potential NHL success. It uses scoring rates and adjusts for era and league (ie QMJHL now vs 10 years ago), height, and age (fairly specific, not just draft year). Basically, it finds players that followed similar routes with similar attributes and gives you the rate of success (200 games in nhl I believe?) for those players.

Really interesting. Kylington had very few comparables as he scored so early.

Quote:
Note: finding comparables to Kylington's 16-year old season is nearly impossible. No one has ever been as young as he is and produced at his level in Swedish professional hockey. His only close 2014 comparable is from his time in the SuperElit, and is Erik Karlsson.

PCS Most NHL GP
Roman Hamrlik
Teppo Numminen
Tomas Jonsson

PCS Highest Pts/GP
Erik Karlsson
Tomas Jonsson
Teppo Numminen
Andersson was also analyzed:

Quote:
PCS% 2014: 33.3%. PCS Pts/82 2014: 22.0
PCS% 2015: 31.7%. PCS Pts/82 2015: 26.8

PCS Most NHL GP
Glen Wesley
Brad Stuart
Stephane Quintal

PCS Highest Pts/GP
Drew Doughty
Robert Murray
Mario Marois

Here's the introduction to it. Looks to be a fantastic tool they continue to tweak:


http://canucksarmy.com/2015/5/26/dra...-success-model

I highly recommend reading it.
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