Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV
It was still our amateur scouts that found Giordano, whose draft year would have been 2002 or so.
So that's
#1D - 2002
#1D - 2008
#1W - 2011
That's not luck.
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How many first round busts did the Flames pick over that time period?
I think when you are working to predict the future, luck is going to play a big role no matter the task.
The case of Giordano also illustrates why the strategy of "Always having good players ready to step in on cheap ELC contracts" isn't really a viable one.
Giordano was in his 6th season with the Flames before he had what we would call an impact year. Brodie had one season in his ELC 2012/13 where he played a top four role, albeit on a poor team. Gaudreau is the best possible outcome for an ELC and the Flames will be paying him big bucks by the time they are ready to contend.
The fact is that the vast majority of players aren't impact contributors on their ELC's and you can't predict when those ones that are will come along.
I think it isn't prudent to bank on getting key contributions from ELCs as part of an effective strategy for a GM.