Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - [Signing] Oilers sign Klefbom to 7 year extension ($4.167 mil AAV)

Fire of the Phoenix · 09-20-2015, 11:48 AM

So funny with examples like Gardiner, Hodgson and Cowen that teams still insist on taking these insane gambles with young players. These types of players (and Klefbom) aren't even top tier like Doughty, Stamkos... why the mad panic to lock them up for so long? It would be like BT signing Bennett (hypothetically I know he has 2 years on his ELC) to a 7/8 year for 4.5m AAV if he had a 30 point rookie season... Bennett has more pedigree/potential than Klefbom and that would still be just as stupid.

Best case scenario is Klefbom turns into Roman Josi over the course of the deal. This is a real long shot IMO as I personally don't see him even becoming a top 50 Dman. Worst case, he's Cowen or Gardiner. The chance that either scenario happens are probably pretty similar (remote), the most likely outcome is probably that he will be worth the contract, but just because he's a competent #4. If that happens, they've locked an average player up for 7 years with cap uncertainty looming (probably going to be flat or slightly decrease until if/when the CDN dollar rebounds). I don't know about you guys but I don't want the Russells of the world locked up for 7 years, even if they are competent.

I's all about managing risk. There's a reason super long term deals are better gamble with elite, established guys than they are for good depth/support players. If an elite player loses a step, they can still be a good depth player. If a good depth player loses a step, they are out of the league. 7 years is a long time to not be able to protect yourself against a player not performing up to expectations. This is literally the exact type of signing that screwed over Boston's salary cap situation. Granted, Chia was giving older players those deals in Boston, at least Klefbom still has room to grow. However, at the end of the day, potential is pretty much useless unless it is realized. A 22 y.o. #6/7 guy is no more useful than a 30 y.o #6/7 guy if he never takes that next step. The vast majority of players never take that next step.

Can't wait to see what Nurse gets, he's got to be licking his chops right now. If he plays the next two years the way I think he will, he's going to look at Klefbom's contract and be like "I want 7m for 7 years" and what will they do, play hardball with their future #1 Dman because they blew their wad on Klefbom and Sekera? Between Nurse and McDavid, it might cost the Oilers 15m-17m combined to retain both with the salary structure they are starting to put in place.

09-20-2015, 11:48 AM	#162
Fire of the Phoenix #1 Goaltender Join Date: Jul 2014 Location: Northern Crater Exp:	So funny with examples like Gardiner, Hodgson and Cowen that teams still insist on taking these insane gambles with young players. These types of players (and Klefbom) aren't even top tier like Doughty, Stamkos... why the mad panic to lock them up for so long? It would be like BT signing Bennett (hypothetically I know he has 2 years on his ELC) to a 7/8 year for 4.5m AAV if he had a 30 point rookie season... Bennett has more pedigree/potential than Klefbom and that would still be just as stupid. Best case scenario is Klefbom turns into Roman Josi over the course of the deal. This is a real long shot IMO as I personally don't see him even becoming a top 50 Dman. Worst case, he's Cowen or Gardiner. The chance that either scenario happens are probably pretty similar (remote), the most likely outcome is probably that he will be worth the contract, but just because he's a competent #4. If that happens, they've locked an average player up for 7 years with cap uncertainty looming (probably going to be flat or slightly decrease until if/when the CDN dollar rebounds). I don't know about you guys but I don't want the Russells of the world locked up for 7 years, even if they are competent. I's all about managing risk. There's a reason super long term deals are better gamble with elite, established guys than they are for good depth/support players. If an elite player loses a step, they can still be a good depth player. If a good depth player loses a step, they are out of the league. 7 years is a long time to not be able to protect yourself against a player not performing up to expectations. This is literally the exact type of signing that screwed over Boston's salary cap situation. Granted, Chia was giving older players those deals in Boston, at least Klefbom still has room to grow. However, at the end of the day, potential is pretty much useless unless it is realized. A 22 y.o. #6/7 guy is no more useful than a 30 y.o #6/7 guy if he never takes that next step. The vast majority of players never take that next step. Can't wait to see what Nurse gets, he's got to be licking his chops right now. If he plays the next two years the way I think he will, he's going to look at Klefbom's contract and be like "I want 7m for 7 years" and what will they do, play hardball with their future #1 Dman because they blew their wad on Klefbom and Sekera? Between Nurse and McDavid, it might cost the Oilers 15m-17m combined to retain both with the salary structure they are starting to put in place.