Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
So on the face of it, you have a 33-32 lead (i.e. a functional tie what with MOE) and 14% undecided voters - which column would include me.
They note that the "leaning undecided" are leaning CPC... but it gets more interesting with the breakdown, though as it suggests that Matt Grant may have softer numbers... he has a 1 point lead in "certain to vote" respondents (again, functional tie) - but Webber has him by 13 points on "likely" voters. As for how strong the support for the party is, the CPC people are at 79% to 53% "strong" support, with 36% Liberals saying they "might change" versus 19% for the CPC, and 11% "undecided" liberal voters vs. 4% CPC. So I'm not sure how illusory the statistical tie is.
Obviously, the 14% of us who haven't settled are what matters, but I think if I were to bet on who is going to win just based on that I'd have to say Webber.
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It's confusingly drafted, but the way I read the narrative is that 18% of the undecideds are "leaning" conservative, not that the undecided voters have a particular predominant slant.
How to allocate undecided voters is a bit of a complex issue, and usually involves making assumptions about what "late deciders" tend to do.
But I would not conclude from the smaller sub-sample of undecided voters that they are likelier as a group to vote conservative. Basically, of that 14% group, 18% are leaning conservative, and 13% are leaning either Liberal or NDP. Given the larger MOE of that subsample, that is pretty much what you are calling "a functional tie".
Not to mention that two-thirds of that 14% weren't leaning one way or the other at this point.