Quote:
Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack
just 2 years ago after Rafa collected his 13th major, we all thought there was no way he'd finish with fewer than 17-18 slams. and now it's a coin toss whether he even sees the 2nd week of play.
and same thing with Fed around 2009-10. it seemed like he'd just keep on collecting those big trophies...until he didn't. we can go back as far as we like into tennis history where a seemingly indomitable champion has nothing standing in their path, until suddenly a combination of age, injury, hot opponents and bad matchups take it all away for good. Nole is definitely well positioned to at least climb into that 3 way tie with Rafa and Pete, but I've seen this story play out a certain way too many times to just hand him 7+ more.
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With Fed, we knew he was dominant back then, but he could never quite get past Rafa at RG. Slowly that advantage Rafa had crept into other surfaces. We knew back then Fed would be denied by how healthy Rafa would be.
With Rafa, the concern was always going to be his fitness. Rafa's injury woes go as far back to Wimbledon 2007. But being the warrior that he is, he still powered through.
Novak doesnt seem to have any such issues facing him right now - no young challenger (like what Fed had to face with Rafa) and no injury concerns (his adherence to a strict regimen and the holistic approach has really paid off, this probably sets him apart from even Fed). So yes, the story's been played out time and time again, but Novak seems to not have disadvantages like the others had.
Full disclosure: I am a Novak fan and would like to see him come close to Fed's haul of 17. But one Slam at a time.