Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
And EKOS has the CPC ahead. So three polls.. three different parties in front.
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That means they are tied and all this handwringing is over the natural statistical variance due to the margin of error. The trend is a near-tie with a slight NDP lead and no movement yet.
Also, anyone who claims that a single poll is more likely correct because its result shows a change beyond the MOE may well be misunderstanding the math. The margin of error reported in these polls is based on the error falling within that range 19/20 times, which means that there should be an outlier 1 out of 20 times. Basically an outlier may indicate a trend or it may be an outlier, but given enough time, outliers tend to be swamped the weight of more data.
I predict we won't have any real movement from this deadlock until several points in the campaign:
- the debates, each of which could produce movement, especially the next one which could crystallize some peoples' thoughts about the various foreign affairs issues that have come up in the campaign so far
- the release of full platforms (we haven't really heard the environmental GHG tax/regulations/emissions trading parts of the Liberal or NDP platforms, which may well prove to be unpalatable for industry and/or consumers if the past platforms have anything to say)
- Thanksgiving, when families get together and talk politics and finalize their decisions a week before the end of the campaign