At least Treliving gets it. Without significant additions, the Flames were in tough to make the playoffs.
Even with the additions, it's going to tough. The Flames could finish anywhere from 6th to 10th this year.
Things to watch for me this season:
-5v5 shot differential. It's been harped on, but it'll be interesting to see if Bennett, Hamilton and Frolik can move the needle. If the focus continues to be on blocking shots, they'll be in tough I think. I like to separate shot generation and suppression as it's been shown they're separate skills that are actually relatively independent of each other and I don't believe they should be lumped together. More on this in a bit
-Goals against. To be an elite team with a shot at the cup, you need to be elite in goals against. Goal scoring has only limited effect on winning compared to goals against. The defensive core is built on attack, and plenty of analysis shows offense and defense are actually independent. The old adage of "the best defense is a good offense" simply isn't true. Having said that "defensive defensemen" don't contribute to defense much if they can't move the puck out of their zone with possession. This is where having Hamilton and the potential of dropping Russell to the third pair could really help. If the goalies can play like they should, and the Forward core back check effectively (not just block shots) it may turn things around. Calgary was 17th last year and needs to improve significantly to be a lock for a spot.
-Shot generation. While goals against is essential to win the big one, scoring goals is still important. It's extremely unlikely they can score as many goals if they continue to throw so few pucks at the net. Only the Devils and Sabres took less shots than the Flames last year. The top team (Chicago) took seven more shots per game. That's over 25% more shots per game!! There's a lot of work to be done here.
-Penalty differential. This was, in my mind, probably the Flames biggest secret weapon. They were historically good at taking less penalties than they drew. From a repeatability perspective, taking fewer penalties is a repeatable skill and drawing penalties likely isn't. At 5v5, the flames had a negative goal differential and don't make the playoffs if they go to the box more. It's hard as a fan to see the Flames shy away from the physical "after the whistle" stuff, but it works for them.
Overall, will the improvement in the youth, the additions of Hamilton, Bennett and Frolik and a year of healthy Gio make the Flames better than last year?
I think so, but are a year or two from becoming elite
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