Quote:
Originally Posted by Antithesis
If you're into this sort of thing, FanGraphs continues to list the Jays' odds of winning the AL East at about 70%. They have the odds of them being in the playoffs at 99.9% which is terrific and exciting and ... I don't really want them to win a Wild Card spot. Amazing how picky about that I have become after two decades, but there it is.
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Yeah, playoffs is no longer an issue. The only acceptable outcome at this point is winning the division.
For anyone interested, here is what needs to happen for the Jays to miss the playoffs entirely (no 1-game tiebreaker), assuming they go 13-13 the rest of the way:
NY finishes 16-11 or better,
AND
Texas finishes at least 21-6
AND Houston finishes at least 17-8,
AND
Minnesota finishes at least 22-4 OR LAA finishes at least 23-3
If one of those teams did one game poorer, it would mean a tiebreaker for the Jays.
If the Jays did worse than 13-13, adjust these numbers down equivalently.
As for the division, if the jays finish 15-11, NY would have to go 19-8 to win.
If the Jays take 4 out of 7 against NY and go 10-9 against the rest of the field, NY would have to go 14-6 against others to win.