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Old 09-01-2015, 10:08 AM   #94
octothorp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan View Post
Despite the polls giving them a chance, I don't see the Liberals winning.

The NDP have a base in Quebec with possibilities in BC and Ontario. At one time watching the election from out west, whoever got Quebec won the election. Ontario split their ridings and we were just an afterthought. It's not quite that way now but still getting Quebec is big.

The CPC have the Prairies and possibilities in Ontario and BC.

The Liberals have the Maritimes, which is too small to make a difference, with possibilities in Ontario. The Liberals just don't have enough of a base.
Yeah, Liberal distribution isn't great, they probably need about 35% or more to actually win the election... winning 32-31-30 isn't going to cut it. Both the Conservatives or NDP on the other hand could legitimately win with about 31%, without even winning the popular vote. Hell, a situation where the NDP or CPC finish third in popular vote but win the election isn't out of the question.
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