Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
Or if the soft Conservative and NDP supporters decide to switch to Liberal, there could be a surprising election night. I have not written the Liberals out of this yet.
The NDP in particular has a history of polling higher than what the election results end up as. A lot of people support them in theory, but then get cold feet once in come time to vote. Albeit they do seem to be outgrowing that in some recent elections.
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Your post made me curious so here are the results... doing a simple average of the last 10 polls leading up to the elections and comparing that to election night performance.
2011:
CPC: +2.6 compared to polling
NDP: -0.2 compared to polling
LIB: -1.1 compared to polling
2008:
CPC: +2.9 compared to polling
NDP: -1.4 compared to polling
LIB: 0.0 (Same as polling)
2006:
CPC: -0.9 compared to polling
NDP: -1.1 compared to polling
LIB: +3.0 compared to polling
If you take the numbers from the most recent election (2011) and apply them to current polling averages for the 10 most recent polls for this election you would get these numbers as the current state of the race:
CPC: 32.5%
NDP: 32.3%
LIB: 26.1%