Fair enough. I suppose one way to look at those numbers then is that if Crockatt won 36-34, it would still be within the MOE.
You never know what will happen, I suppose--but I would think Crockatt is in trouble just as a result of the fundamentals that are at play. It's a "change" election for a majority of voters, the Tories are polling nearly 10% behind where they were last time, Harper has net unfavourables in the high 30s.... And yet an unpopular incumbent MP who is widely thought of as a nincompoop, and who barely eked out a by-election win over a split-vote opposition, is supposed to beat a popular MLA, challenging in a riding that is largely his home turf?
I guess I am skeptical--but again, that is just my gut, without numbers to back it up.
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