Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I just looked at the list of polls on the Wikipedia site above, and realized I was wrong. Leger's numbers are actually pretty consistent with some of the other numbers out there--Forum, for instance, has the NDP at 34 and the CPC at 28.
I don't have a clear recollection--and I'm confident octothorp can set me straight--but am I right in thinking that Forum has a slight liberal house-effect relative to other pollsters, like Nanos and Mainstreet? If that's true, then I think all the polls really are telling us the same story, which is that this is a close election and the NDP has a slight lead.
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Yeah, I could be wrong but I believe that Forum and EKOS are the two that traditionally have a reputation for a liberal house effect, while Nanos is the other extreme. (I'm not sure I'd call Nanos an extreme, as even they tend to underestimate Conservative support, they just underestimate it less than any other pollster).
Regarding the Conservative strategy of staying on the Trudeau message, my guess is that they see themselves as in a lot of two-way battles with the Liberals, and relatively fewer two-way battles with the NDP. So driving voters from the Liberals is going to be the higher-reward strategy, even if they gain less than half of the defecting voters. But it's definitely higher risk, because there is the risk that you also end up turning some of those Liberal/NDP battles into NDP wins, and if it's a race between the NDP and Conservatives to form a minority, this strategy might play into the NDPs hands more. Which is why I think the Conservatives still think they have a shot at another majority.
Actually, that's worth looking into. When I have time, I'm going to go through threehundredeight's riding breakdowns, and see how many battleground ridings he has between each party.