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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Yeah, I was getting ready to conclude that the debate didn't really move the needle, and I now think (after seeing a few more polls since then) that it just didn't move it all that much. However, there does seem to be an appreciable, but slight, movement toward the liberals, likely due to Trudeau exceeding expectations.
On a riding-specific level, I haven't driven around town or anything--but I'm starting to see a lot of Kent Hehr signs in Calgary Centre, and nothing for Joan Crockatt, or for any other candidate.
That's a riding that I've thought for a while could be one the Liberals might pick up--keeping in mind that Crockatt barely eked out a victory in the byelection, and was assisted by a vote-split between the Liberals and Greens that may not be repeated. Whether the NDP makes a push in this riding could be an important factor, but so far no sign of them.
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Yeah, I think that Centre, Skyview, and Confederation are all in play, and the fact that the NDP is so slow-starting in all of these ridings is going to help the Liberals immensely. Centre and Skyview should be close to straight-up two-way races between Liberals and CPC, while in Confederation, vote-splitting between Liberals and NDP could be much more of a factor and allow the CPCs to win with a mid-30s percentage of the vote.