One refinery in Kentucky losing production for a small length of time should not have this dramatic an effect on prices at the pump. The price at Safeway in Crowfoot before they closed was 95.4, and the Husky that stayed open jumped to 122.9. That's an increase of 23%. I'm sure that there is not a projected 23% loss in continental capacity due to one refinery.
This does not take into consideration existing oversupply as well. For months oil companies have been telling us that containment and holding facilities are full.
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