Instead of a single (and therefore black and white) line in the sand, I would be inclined to suggest a tiered rating system and draw lines for each level:
where...
A+ is that rare talent that only comes around periodically
A are solid prospects that you pretty much expect to make it
B are guys at the next level - good, but some things to improve on
C are longer shots and younger guys with a long road ahead of them
D for the unlikely ones
and I would rate our group as follows:
A+ 1
A after 5 (I would probably have Hickey as an A as well)
B after 12
C after 21
D the remainder
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