My cynical theory (and I'm well aware it's most likely completely off base) is that there's something triggered by seeing certain promotions take place.
I'm not saying that Craig Fergusen and Jon Stewart are bitter people and that backing out of their respective shows is an F-you to anyone or anything, but more of a situation where they're going along doing their thing and they see David Letterman announce his retirement and Stephen Colbert get announced as the replacement.
Craig Fergusen goes; "Ah, you know what, deep down I knew I wasn't going to get promoted when he retired but that's enough of this gig for me".
Jon Stewart goes; "Stephan's amazing at what he does and thanks me for everything, but this made me realize I'm finished with doing the same show for all these years".
Again, nothing cynical on their part, but more that the move maybe caused them to reflect on what they were doing and realize maybe they had done it long enough. So not so much that they honestly thought they had a legitimate chance at it, but rather the finality of it caused the reflection that led to their decisions.
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