I set the maginot line pretty high at 12. Perhaps I'm sand-bagging a bit, but I really believe that even with a great prospect pool, more guys end up busting then make it.
For me there is a fundamental drop off from McDonald to Andersson in terms of the likelihood they make it. Everyone from McDonald above, I classify as it being very disappointing if they don't make it. Kylington is the exception here but he is such an odd player to evaluate because of the immense upside but significant risk.
At Andersson and below I think the probability of success starts to drop significantly.
When I look at the group from 13-17
13 Rasmus Andersson
14 Bill Arnold
15 Kenny Morrison
16 Ryan Culkin
17 Hunter Smith
18 Kenny Agostino
That's 6 guys. I think, realistically 2 of them become regular NHLers. If 3 of them make it - that will be great. 4 would be amazing.
And after Agostino I think the probabilities drop again in a big waty.
Just the way I see it. Really I have no clue.
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