Quote:
Originally Posted by killer_carlson
First debate is tonight. As much as I think the debate will produce something substantive, I suspect that the spin doctors have already written their takeaways. My predictions:
1) Mere seconds after the debate the NDP's and Conservative's paid tweeters er, I mean party faithful dump all over the internet by hitting "send" or "submit" with pre-written tweets and comments about how terrible Trudeau performed.
2) Trudeau pulls a Raj Sherman and goes out of his way to work a large number of cliches into his responses.
3) CBC and the Globe and Mail capture and report said Trudeau cliches as his making stellar points and standing his ground, regardless of proper context.
4) Mulclair tries to engage Harper substantively, with Harper avoiding the fight, for now.
5) Harper hammers Elizabeth May during an exchange.
6) Elizabeth May plays nice with the NDP and talks coalition
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All very possible. I do think there's a lot of potential for Trudeau to 'exceed expectations', simply because Conservatives have been lowering expectations for him for months now. He's definitely got the most to gain tonight, because he can wipe out all that 'just not ready' rhetoric by actually looking ready.
I think Harper goes on the offensive a lot, because he doesn't want to run on his own record as much as he wants to run on the spectre of a left-wing government. He'll probably get a number of attacks that he doesn't have good responses to except shifting the focus. He probably targets Trudeau more than Mulclair. But he needs to be careful, because a lot of the Conservative attacks on Trudeau thus far have been more about style than substance. Harper needs to keep his focus on substantial Liberal policies.
Mulclair probably has the highest expectations, because he's got a reputation as an excellent parliamentary debater, and a lot of Canadians haven't actually seen that from him. I could see him in a position where he comes off as too cautious tonight, trying to look prime-ministerial. Which is a risky strategy. If Trudeau is performing well, Mulclair risks losing some ground to Trudeau. But if Harper is beating down Trudeau, then Mulclair not getting involved benefits the Conservatives. He needs to land at least a few heavy blows.