Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek Sutton
Any starter is going to get about 12 starts for the remainder of the season. If Price can go 10-2 over anyone else going 6-6 in those 12 starts, are those 4 more wins going to push them into the play offs?
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It's a valid question to ask, but there are 4 points to consider IMO:
1) they are only 2 games back in the WC, so yes, improving by 4 games probably makes enough of a difference
2) he replaces the 5th starter. They have been a .500 ball club to date, so it's safe to assume that the 5th spot has been less than .500. So he probably replaces something more like 4-8 or 3-9.
3) his impact is greater than just his 12 starts. He regularly pitches into the 7th and beyond, taking a lot of stress off of the bullpen (and again, we're comparing to the #5 spot). Rest for the bullpen could easily mean 2 or 3 more wins on the days that he isn't pitching.
4) his presence generates confidence and excitement throughout the rest of the lineup.
I think it can be argued that his acquisition is worth more like 7-8 wins.
60 games left when they acquired him. At their prior pace, they were looking at 30-30. If they go 36-24 or 37-23, I think they are in for sure.
With Tulo, Price and Hawkins, and Sanchez coming back, they have improved their rotation, their bullpen, and their defence. And the offence is at least as good, if not better as well.
I honestly would not be surprised if they finish the season somewhere in the 38-22 to 40-20 range.