Re: Arnold. Josh Weissbock tweeted this about the diminishing chances of reaching the bugs from the AHL (lower actually if coming from NCAA). This is an analysis of players playing regularly in AHL with at least 1 game of NHL graduating to play more than 200 games. I'm sure Detroit skews this too:
Summary of AHLer -> NHL Regular
19: 43.69%
20: 31.8%
21: 23.1%
22: 17.9%
23: 12,56%
24: 10,1%
Obviously Arnold is an N of 1 so this doesn't specifically give good chances of making it, but it does tell you where players on his category are on the scale of chances to be a contributor to the NHL club
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