Quote:
Originally Posted by Thor
Think of it like Cuba. The longer the great satan can be blamed for their hardships, the better off the theocrats can rule. The ridiculously young average age of this population means we have a real shot now with open trade relations is to open this nation up and allow the western influence to grow again as it was in the past.
The pressure for this deal was on the theocrats, they did this for their self survival even though they did not want it, in fact that is why they keep focusing on Israel because they need to support their own base.
BUT the trend will be for a more liberal society with the youth there.
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Not sure Cuba is the best comparable. Cuba was already very modernized and their former benefactor, the USSR, no longer existed. It was just a case of the USA being behind the times and holding a grudge. So Cuba was a case of relations following liberalization, not the other way around.
Iran is an entirely different situation. You have a repressed liberal population. The government continues to push towards its dream of a #####e Caliphate. It spends billions on funding and promoting #####e militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. I don't think its anywhere in their plan to modernize and back away from their religious ambitions.
Also, as CC said, the views of the "youth" vary greatly. There is definitely a liberal group of youth within the major cities. However, there are large portions of Iran that retain their desire for conservative lifestyles. It sounds like you are making a lot of the assumptions that people made about the Arab Spring. That people were revolting because they wanted a liberal democracy, which did not end up being the case.
In Iran a supposedly "moderate" leader was elected in 2013. Since then, the government has increased executions, cracked down on minorities, expanded its military operations in surrounding countries, etc...