Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV
I believe this is how it goes:
- Assume Jankowski signs in March 2016
- Jankowski will be 22 as of Sept 15, 2016 (the Calender Year he will be signing)
- This will therefore be a 2-year ELC
- Year 1 will probably burn 2015-16 .
- Jankowski will be an RFA in 2017, same time as Culkin, Kulak, Gillies, Morrisson, Sieloff, and Bennett
So just like Bill Arnold we'll only have him for a year under ELC
Compare that to if we signed him right now:
- Jankowski will be 21 as of Sept 15, 2015
- Therefore a 3-year ELC
- He will obviously play pro during 2015-16
- Jankowski would be an RFA in 2018, same time as Poirier, Klimchuk, and Kanzig.
If I'm understanding this right, would the AHL not be better asset management? Not that I'm criticising Tre as long as we get Janko locked up, but this along with Bennett/Gillies is pretty telling of how much or how little Calgary values ELCs compared to some other teams even though we've got some cap crunch coming.
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For guys like Arnold, Agostino, and Jankowski who are likely to play a couple of years in the AHL before cracking the NHL lineup, it's better to get them out of the entry-level system sooner than later.
Let's look at Arnold:
The Flames could have signed him in the summer of 2013, after his Junior year. It would have been a 3-year ELC covering the 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 seasons. It likely would have been the same value of contract as the one he eventually did sign in the spring of 2014: $900,000 NHL salary ($810,000 base salary and $90,000 signing bonus) and $67,500 AHL salary.
In that situation...
2013-14: He would have likely been the 3rd or 4th line Centre in Abbotsford, behind Granlund, Reinhart, and Knight (possibly spending time on the Wing as well). He would have been paid his $90,000 signing bonus and his $67,500 AHL salary for a total of $157,500.
2014-15: This season would have likely played out the same. Again, he would have been paid a total of $157,500.
2015-16: Reinhart and Knight are out of the Flames system and Granlund will likely spend the majority of the season in Calgary (Granlund might start the season in Stockton because he doesn't require waivers, but will likely be the first call-up for any forward injuries). Arnold should be the top-line Centre in Stockton for most of the season, and high on the call-up list. Let's project Arnold to spend 25% of the season in Calgary, that means he will receive 75% of his AHL salary and 25% of his NHL salary (plus his signing bonus), for a total payout of $365,625.
Overall, that would be a total payout over three seasons of $680,625. He would also be due for a Qualifying Offer in 2016 around $850,500 with some NHL experience under his belt.
Compare that to signing him immediately following his senior year:
2013-14: Centered the top line in the NCAA. Went to the Frozen Four for the second time in his college career. Scored over a point per game between Gaudreau and Hayes. He signed at the end of the season, with one game left and received his signing bonus plus around $4,000 for one game in Vancouver.
2014-15: Likely the same result whether he signed in 2013 or 2014. Paid $157,500.
2015-16: Due for his second contract. Only has one year of pro experience, all in the AHL. Received his Qualifying Offer from the Flames. I suspect he'll sign a contract with a lower NHL salary but a higher AHL salary than his QO (similar to Paul Byron at the end of his ELC). Because of his lack of pro experience, he can't receive an RFA Offer Sheet, so the Flames mostly hold the cards in negotiations. There's also a possibility to get him signed to a longer-term at a lower rate because he hasn't cracked the NHL roster.
Because he hasn't signed yet, I'll make up numbers and say it'll be $800,000 NHL/$120,000 AHL. If we again assume he'll play 25% of the season in Calgary, he would get paid $290,000.
So, using those numbers, his overall compensation for the three seasons would be $541,500. He will be due for his second QO in 2016 of $840,000 (assuming he signs for $800,000).
Arguably, playing his senior year as the Centre of the top line in the country and wearing the "A" for Boston College was likely better for his overall development than being a low-level guy in Abbotsford would have been. The same will likely be true for Jankowski (although, he won't have Gaudreau on his wing, so I doubt it'll be the top line in the NCAA).
Overall, for those players who will spend the bulk of their first 2 or 3 three years as pros in the AHL, it's cheaper to get them off their ELC ASAP because you don't have to pay them a big signing bonus for the extra year, even if you're paying them a higher AHL salary for that season. You can also potentially get them to accept a lower NHL salary on their second contract in exchange for a higher AHL salary, which helps when they do eventually crack the NHL lineup and need a new contract after that.