Quote:
Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe
So, Jankowski has been directly compared to Joe Nieuwendyk. Let's take a look at Joe.
Drafted in '85. Spent two seasons in college, and got a 9 game look in the NHL in the 86/87 season. Became an NHL'er in the 87/88 season (and tied Mike Bossy's rookie goal scoring record IIRC).
I won't compare the busts taken before him, but will focus on another good player selected that same draft, and 2nd overall to boot. Much better pedigree than Nieuwendyk, and broke into the NHL the very next season after the draft. Definitely wasn't a bad pick at all - Craig Simpson.
By your definition, it is a no-brainer picking Simpson.
There are a total of ZERO people in this world outside of the Simpson family that would trade a Nieuwendyk away in order to get a Simpson.
This was actually the first example I thought of.
Need a more recent example? Compare our very own TJ Brodie to Luke Schenn. Again, nobody outside the Schenn family would trade a Brodie away to get a Schenn back. Both defencemen. Schenn was a 5th overall pick who played in the NHL the first season after their respective drafts, and Brodie took 3 full seasons before he got a 3 game cup of coffee in the NHL. By your definition, it would be a no-brainer ranking Schenn higher.
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I agree with your point that just taking how they are playing now isn't the best way to rank players but disagree with your examples because there is hindsight bias that clouds the issue when looking at the past in those cases.
Both of those players followed an unexpected development curve.
If the Flames were offered Craig Simpson for Niewendyk during the 1986/87 season (19//20 years old) they would have made that trade.
Simpson had 26 goals and 51 points in the NHL, and Niewendyk was still kind of an unheard of kid that wasn't putting up good but not unheard of numbers in the NCAA.
Just two years earlier when they were both playing in the NCAA, Simpson had put up 2.00PPG and Niewendyk was at 1.55ppg
If you are doing a prospect ranking that year it is probably clear that Simpson would have been ranked higher since the development path of Niewendyk scoring 50 the next season would have been unthinkable.
Same thing with Brodie and Schenn. If you would have proposed that trade to Flames GMs or on CP 2 or 3 years after the draft it would have happened instantly.
Schenn was still developing nicely, was a + player and had put up 17 points as a 19 year old d-man. Brodie had a good season, but nothing remarkable.