Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fonz
For those voting Ortio over Gillies, out of curiosity, let's say Ortio was another teams prospect. Would you trade Gillies to that team right now to acquire Ortio?
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Yes. Ortio has won professional games at the NHL level by standing on his head. Not only has he had two straight strong years at the AHL level, but he nearly single handedly carried them into the playoffs last year. After he got injured, a respectable AHL goaltender in Theissen and a respectable former NCAA goaltender in Carr couldn't even hope to keep the same team afloat.
Gillies has never even played a pro game and is an unknown. He's had a good college career and ended it on a high note, but I also want to point out that the four tournament games the friars won had average scores of 4.75 goals for and 2.5 goals against.. It's not like Gillies was inhuman or didn't get goal scoring support from his skaters. And i also wanna point out that the friars were a tournament invite as they got upset by unranked New Hampshire in the Hockey East tourney, with Gillies losing TWICE in critical overtime games.
I don't puch much stock into college goaltending stats.. Doug Carr had a season posting a .928 in Hockey East and another with a .936 and yet he wasn't even good enough to be Ortio's backup in the AHL. Gillies has been very consistent but until he shows his consistency translates to a higher level he's a crapshoot. Ortio at worst is an NHL backup, Gillies at worst may not make the NHL. Not saying Gillies does not have a higher ceiling - he does due to his four inch height advantage but he has a lower floor to go with it at this point and for a goaltender i would rather be safe than sorry.
That doesn't mean I am predicting Gillies will bust but I am simply not predicting he will be an AHL all star or an NHLer. He's simply a good wild card as is Mason MacDonald. Ortio is not a wild card... He should be in the NHL next season and sink or swim he has a chance to either be a streaky backup, or a Vezina caliber #1 goaltender. The ceiling is high on both Ortio and Gillies but right now the floor on Ortio is much higher.
I also think the love for huge goalies is a bit silly. Some of the best goaltenders in last year's playoffs were guys like Lundqvist, Mrazek, and Holtby, while Chicago made their way through finding holes in 6'5 Rinne, 6'6 Dubnyk, 6'4 Andersen, and 6'7 Bishop. Their starter Crawford was the smaller goalie in every single series. Likewise, I remember Tim Thomas outplaying "Big" goalie Luongo for a Stanley Cup.
I have more confidence in Ortio right now, but I welcome the upside of both Gillies and MacDonald. Just like Gillies' .930 was one of the better save percentages in the Hockey East conference, MacDonald's .906 was actually elite in the QMJHL. But at the end of the day these are still amateur leagues where these goalies are stopping goals against amateurs. A lot easier to inflate one's save percentage when it's a weak Paul Byron type move being made by a player without Paul Byron quickness, rather than dealing with an onslaught of pro snipe. Also a lot easier to deflate one's save percentages on a team with no pro-calibre defensemen at all playing against pro-calibre forwards. The lack of balance in these leagues has to be considered... at least at the AHL and especially NHL level the parity is much higher.
...Hence I think Ortio is our best goalie prospect. He's proven the most at the highest level and still shows elite upside.